(Publisher of Peer Reviewed Open Access Journals)
Navigation

International Journal of Advanced Technology and Engineering Exploration (IJATEE)

ISSN (Print):2394-5443    ISSN (Online):2394-7454
Volume-8 Issue-81 August-2021
Full-Text PDF
Paper Title : Development of real-time flood forecast model for vamsadhara river through hydrological approach
Author Name : Arunima Mahapatra, Vazeer Mahammood and K H V Durga Rao
Abstract :

Hydrologic simulation of large river catchments, and the decision to choose a computerized model, is a complex job that necessitates a thorough knowledge of rainfall-runoff processes. While modeling involves proper estimation of direct surface runoff volume and peak discharge in a watershed. In the present study, a real-time flood forecasting model is developed using Hydrological Modelling System (HMS) to forecast floods and River Analysis System (RAS) to identify inundation areas in the Vamsadhara river basin located between Odisha and Andhra Pradesh in India. The flood prediction model is constructed using a simulation of spatial data. The approach includes a loss model to compute infiltration loss, a transform model to simulate runoff rate, and a Muskingum routing method to route flow in a river along with model calibration, and validation with field data. Topographic and hydrologic parameters for each of 17 sub-basins are computed using Land Use, Land Cover (LULC). Muskingum parameters are also calculated. The hydrological model has been calibrated using the precipitation and gauge discharge data of the 2006 flood event. For validation of the modeling process, flood events in 2010 and 2013 at two Gunupur and Kashinagar gauge stations were chosen. The simulated peak discharges obtained are sufficiently accurate with observed data at both the gauge stations. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) obtained for the calibration period are 0.78 & 0.77, which shows that model performance is good and accepted for simulation of streamflow. Similarly, the model performance for validation period is 0.81 & 0.80 for 2010 flood event while for the 2013 flood event are 0.84 & 0.82 indicating very good model performance. Overall, the study revealed that the HMS model could be employed for the calculation of surface runoff and flood forecasting in similar areas and conditions existing nearby catchments. Flood inundation maps generated with HEC-GeoRAS and Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) for 1D steady flow demonstrate the model's output. As a result, this would help in the effective monitoring of flood hazards and the sustainable management of watersheds.

Keywords : GIS, Flood forecast, DEM, Flood inundation map, HEC-HMS, HEC-GEORAS, HEC-RAS.
Cite this article : Mahapatra A, Mahammood V, Rao KD. Development of real-time flood forecast model for vamsadhara river through hydrological approach. International Journal of Advanced Technology and Engineering Exploration. 2021; 8(81):1059-1079. DOI:10.19101/IJATEE.2021.874272.
References :
[1]Bhatt JR, Sharma SK. Impacts of climate change on India and climate change related activities. Tata McGraw-Hill Publishing Companay Ltd, New Delhi; 2002.
[Google Scholar]
[2]Markus M, Angel JR, Yang L, Hejazi MI. Changing estimates of design precipitation in Northeastern Illinois: comparison between different sources and sensitivity analysis. Journal of Hydrology. 2007; 347(1-2):211-22.
[Crossref] [Google Scholar]
[3]https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=5841#.YSx5nfozbIU. Accessed 26 October 2020.
[4]Matkan A, Shakiba A, Pourali H, Azari H. Flood early warning with integration of hydrologic and hydraulic models, RS and GIS (Case Study: Madarsoo Basin, Iran). World Applied Sciences Journal. 2009; 6(12):1698-704.
[Google Scholar]
[5]Rao KH, Rao VV, Dadhwal VK, Behera G, Sharma JR. A distributed model for real-time flood forecasting in the Godavari Basin using space inputs. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science. 2011; 2(3):31-40.
[Crossref] [Google Scholar]
[6]Morin E, Jacoby Y, Navon S, Bet-Halachmi E. Towards flash-flood prediction in the dry Dead Sea region utilizing radar rainfall information. Advances in Water Resources. 2009; 32(7):1066-76.
[Crossref] [Google Scholar]
[7]https://www.hec.usace.army.mil/software/hec-hms/documentation/HEC-HMS_Users_Manual_4.2.pdf. Accessed 26 October 2020.
[8]Feldman AD. Hydrologic modeling system HEC-HMS. Technical Reference Manual. 2000.
[Google Scholar]
[9]Majidi A, Shahedi K. Simulation of rainfall-runoff process using Green-Ampt method and HEC-HMS model (Case study: Abnama Watershed, Iran). International Journal of Hydraulic Engineering. 2012; 1(1):5-9.
[Crossref] [Google Scholar]
[10]Choudhari K, Panigrahi B, Paul JC. Simulation of rainfall-runoff process using HEC-HMS model for Balijore Nala watershed, Odisha, India. International Journal of Geomatics and Geosciences. 2014; 5(2):253-65.
[Google Scholar]
[11]Kabiri R. Simulation of runoff using modified SCS-CN method using GIS system, case study: klang watershed in Malaysia. Research Journal of Environmental Sciences. 2014; 8(4):178-92.
[Google Scholar]
[12]https://sandrp.in/2017/05/23/rivers-profile-of-andhra-pradesh-and-telangana-states/. Accessed 26 October 2020.
[13]https://www.researchgate.net/publication/274703806_Inter_and_Transdisciplinary_Research_Methods_in_Rural.Accessed 26 October 2020.
[14]Jakeman AJ, Hornberger GM. How much complexity is warranted in a rainfall‐runoff model? Water Resources Research. 1993; 29(8):2637-49.
[Crossref] [Google Scholar]
[15]Sahour H, Mokhtari A, Ghahfarokh SS. Rainfall-runoff modeling using remotely sensed data and the hydrologic modeling system (HEC-HMS). Eco. Env. & Cons. 2016; 22(4):163-73.
[Google Scholar]
[16]Solaimani K. GIS-based multidate flood forecasting using hydraulic model. International Journal of Physical Sciences. 2011; 6(3):577-82.
[Google Scholar]
[17]Shehata M, Mizunaga H. Geospatial analysis of surface hydrological parameters for Kyushu Island, Japan. Natural Hazards. 2019; 96(1):33-52.
[Crossref] [Google Scholar]
[18]Abdelkarim A, Gaber AF, Alkadi II, Alogayell HM. Integrating remote sensing and hydrologic modeling to assess the impact of land-use changes on the increase of flood risk: a case study of the Riyadh–Dammam train track, Saudi Arabia. Sustainability. 2019; 11(21):1-32.
[Crossref] [Google Scholar]
[19]Sarminingsih A, Rezagama A. Simulation of rainfall-runoff process using HEC-HMS model for garang watershed, semarang, Indonesia. In journal of physics: conference series 2019 (pp.1-9). IOP Publishing.
[Google Scholar]
[20]Othman N, Romali NS, Samat SR, Ahmad AM. Calibration and validation of hydrological model using HEC-HMS for Kuantan River Basin. In IOP conference series: materials science and engineering 2021 (pp.1-6). IOP Publishing.
[Crossref] [Google Scholar]
[21]De Silva MM, Weerakoon SB, Herath S. Modeling of event and continuous flow hydrographs with HEC–HMS: case study in the Kelani River Basin, Sri Lanka. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering. 2014; 19(4):800-6.
[Google Scholar]
[22]Msaddek M, Kimbowa G, El Garouani A. Hydrological modeling of upper oumerrabia basin (Morocco), comparative study of the event-based and continuous-process HEC-HMS Model Methods. Computational Water, Energy, and Environmental Engineering. 2020; 9(4):159-84.
[Crossref] [Google Scholar]
[23]Mccoll C, Aggett G. Land-use forecasting and hydrologic model integration for improved land-use decision support. Journal of Environmental Management. 2007; 84(4):494-512.
[Crossref] [Google Scholar]
[24]Du J, Qian L, Rui H, Zuo T, Zheng D, Xu Y, et al. Assessing the effects of urbanization on annual runoff and flood events using an integrated hydrological modeling system for Qinhuai River Basin, China. Journal of Hydrology. 2012; 464:127-39.
[Crossref] [Google Scholar]
[25]Knebl MR, Yang ZL, Hutchison K, Maidment DR. Regional scale flood modeling using NEXRAD rainfall, GIS, and HEC-HMS/RAS: a case study for the San Antonio River Basin summer 2002 storm event. Journal of Environmental Management. 2005; 75(4):325–36.
[Crossref] [Google Scholar]
[26]Li S, Qi R, Jia W. Calibration of the conceptual rainfall-run off model’s parameters. In advances in water resources and hydraulic engineering 2009 (pp. 55-9). Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg.
[Crossref] [Google Scholar]
[27]Khakbaz B, Imam B, Hsu K, Sorooshian S. From lumped to distributed via semi-distributed: calibration strategies for semi-distributed hydrologic models. Journal of Hydrology. 2012; 418:61-77.
[Crossref] [Google Scholar]
[28]Aghakouchak A, Habib E. Application of a conceptual hydrologic model in teaching hydrologic processes. International Journal of Engineering Education. 2010; 26(4):963-73.
[Google Scholar]
[29]Oleyiblo JO, Li ZJ. Application of HEC-HMS for flood forecasting in Misai and Wanan catchments in China. Water Science and Engineering. 2010; 3(1):14-22.
[Google Scholar]
[30]Yener MK, Sorman AU, Sorman AA, Sensoy A, Gezgin T. Modeling studies with HEC-HMS and runoff scenarios in Yuvacik Basin, Turkiye. International Congress on River Basin Manage. 2007; 4(2007):621-34.
[Google Scholar]
[31]Prabha JA, Tapas MR. Event-based rainfall-runoff modeling using HEC-HMS.
[Google Scholar]
[32]Fleming M, Neary V. Continuous hydrologic modeling study with the hydrologic modeling system. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering. 2004; 9(3):175-83.
[Crossref] [Google Scholar]
[33]Singh VP, Woolhiser DA. Mathematical modeling of watershed hydrology. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering. 2002; 7(4):270-92.
[Crossref] [Google Scholar]
[34]Yusop Z, Chan CH, Katimon A. Runoff characteristics and application of HEC-HMS for modelling stormflow hydrograph in an oil palm catchment. Water Science and Technology. 2007; 56(8):41-8.
[Crossref] [Google Scholar]
[35]Ali M, Khan SJ, Aslam I, Khan Z. Simulation of the impacts of land-use change on surface runoff of Lai Nullah Basin in Islamabad, Pakistan. Landscape and Urban Planning. 2011; 102(4):271-9.
[Crossref] [Google Scholar]
[36]Zelelew DG, Langon S. Selection of appropriate loss methods in HEC-HMS model and determination of the derived values of the sensitive parameters for un-gauged catchments in Northern Ethiopia. International Journal of River Basin Management. 2020; 18(1):127-35.
[Crossref] [Google Scholar]
[37]Halwatura D, Najim MM. Application of the HEC-HMS model for runoff simulation in a tropical catchment. Environmental Modelling & Software. 2013; 46:155-62.
[Crossref] [Google Scholar]
[38]Azam M, San Kim H, Maeng SJ. Development of flood alert application in Mushim stream watershed Korea. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. 2017; 21:11-26.
[Crossref] [Google Scholar]
[39]Visweshwaran R. Application of the HEC-HMS model for runoff simulation in the Krishna Basin. Master’s Thesis, National Institute of Technology Karnataka, Surathkal, India. 2017.
[Google Scholar]
[40]Derdour A, Bouanani A, Babahamed K. Modelling rainfall runoff relations using HEC-HMS in a semi-arid region: case study in Ain Sefra watershed, Ksour Mountains (SW Algeria). Journal of Water and Land Development. 2018; 36:45-55.
[Crossref] [Google Scholar]
[41]Vaishnava S. Characteristics of hydrological modelling of mahanadi basin using the hec-hms software (Doctoral dissertation). Delhi Technological University. 2020.
[Google Scholar]
[42]Goodell C, Warren C. Flood inundation mapping using HEC-RAS. Obras Y Proyectos. 2006; 2:18-23.
[Google Scholar]
[43]Forkuo EK. Flood hazard mapping using Aster image data with GIS. International Journal of Geomatics and Geosciences. 2011; 1(4):932-50.
[Google Scholar]
[44]Mehta DJ, Ramani MM, Joshi MM. Application of 1-D HEC-RAS model in design of channels. International Journal of Innovative Research in Advanced Engineering. 2013; 1(7):103-7.
[Google Scholar]
[45]Abdessamed D, Abderrazak B. Coupling HEC-RAS and HEC-HMS in rainfall–runoff modeling and evaluating floodplain inundation maps in arid environments: case study of Ain Sefra city, Ksour Mountain. SW of Algeria. Environmental Earth Sciences. 2019; 78(19):1-7.
[Crossref] [Google Scholar]
[46]Icyimpaye G, Abdelbaki C, Mourad KA. Hydrological and hydraulic model for flood forecasting in Rwanda. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment. 2021.
[Crossref] [Google Scholar]
[47]Agarwal A, Rai RK, Upadhyay A. Forecasting of runoff and sediment yield using artificial neural networks. Journal of Water Resource and Protection. 2009; 1(5):368-75.
[Crossref] [Google Scholar]
[48]Gann D. Rainfall estimation raster conversion data preparation for hydrological modeling with SWAT Mara Basin (Kenya/Tanzania). GIS– RS Center Florida International University. 2007.
[Google Scholar]
[49]http://cwc.gov.in/sites/default/files/Combined%20Final_HDD_09042012.pdf. Accessed 26 October 2020.
[50]Eadara A, Karanam H. Slope studies of Vamsadhara River Basin: a quantitative approach. International Journal of Engineering and Innovative Technology. 2013; 3(1):184-9.
[Google Scholar]
[51]http://cgwb.gov.in/District_Profile/Orissa/Koraput.pdf. Accessed 26 October 2020.
[52]Agarwal A, Singh RD, Mishra SK, Bhunya PK. ANN-based sediment yield models for Vamsadhara river Basin (India). Water Sa. 2005; 31(1):85-100.
[Crossref] [Google Scholar]
[53]Hromadka TV, McCuen RH, Yen CC. Effect of watershed subdivision on prediction accuracy of hydrologic models. Hydrosoft. 1988; 1(1):19-28.
[Google Scholar]
[54]Sardoii ER, Rostami N, Sigaroudi SK, Taheri S. Calibration of loss estimation methods in HEC-HMS for simulation of surface runoff (Case Study: Amirkabir Dam Watershed, Iran). Advances in Environmental Biology. 2012; 6(1):343-8.
[Google Scholar]
[55]Mccuen RH. Review of curve number hydrology: state of the practice by RH hawkins, TJ Ward, DE Woodward, and JA Van Mullem: ASCE, Reston, VA.
[Crossref] [Google Scholar]
[56]Cronshey R. Urban hydrology for small watersheds. US Department of Agriculture, Soil Conservation Service, Engineering Division; 1986.
[Google Scholar]
[57]Patil VK, Saraf VR, Karad OV, Ghodke SB, Gore D, Dhekale SS. Simulation of rainfall runoff process using HEC-HMS model for Upper Godavari Basin Maharashtra, India. European Journal of Engineering and Technology Research. 2019; 4(4):102-7.
[Crossref] [Google Scholar]
[58]Reddy NA, Seelam JK, Rao S, Nagaraj MK. Flood estimation at ungauged catchments of western catchments of Karnataka, West coast of India. ISH Journal of Hydraulic Engineering. 2019; 25(3):325-35.
[Crossref] [Google Scholar]
[59]Mccarthy GT. The unit hydrograph and flood routing. In proceedings of conference of North Atlantic division, US army corps of engineers 1938 (pp. 608-9).
[Google Scholar]
[60]Tewolde MH, Smithers JC. Flood routing in ungauged catchments using muskingum methods. Water Sa. 2006; 32(3):379-88.
[Crossref] [Google Scholar]
[61]Brunner GW. HEC-RAS hydraulic reference manual. Davis: US Army Corps of Engineers, Hydrologic Engineering Center. 2001.
[Google Scholar]
[62]Moriasi DN, Arnold JG, Van LMW, Bingner RL, Harmel RD, Veith TL. Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations. Transactions of the ASABE. 2007; 50(3):885-900.
[Google Scholar]
[63]Nash JE, Sutcliffe JV. River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I—a discussion of principles. Journal of Hydrology. 1970; 10(3):282-90.
[Crossref] [Google Scholar]
[64]Tahmasbinejad H, Feyzolahpour M, Mumipour M, Zakerhoseini F. Rainfall-runoff simulation and modeling of Karun river using HEC-RAS and HEC-HMS models, Izeh District, Iran. Journal of Applied Sciences. 2012; 12(18):1900-8.
[Google Scholar]
[65]Lin M, Chen X, Chen Y, Yao H. Improving calibration of two key parameters in hydrologic engineering center hydrologic modelling system, and analysing the influence of initial loss on flood peak flows. Water Science and Technology. 2013; 68(12):2718-24.
[Crossref] [Google Scholar]
[66]Cunderlik J, Simonovic SP. Calibration, verification and sensitivity analysis of the HEC-HMS hydrologic model. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of Western Ontario; 2004.
[Google Scholar]
[67]Sabzevari T, Ardakanian R, Shamsaei A, Talebi A. Predicting the flood hydrographs of ungauged watersheds using the HEC-HMS model and the geographic information system (GIS)(Case Study: Kasilian Watershed). Water Engineering, 2009; 2(4):1-11.
[Google Scholar]
[68]Bingner RL, Murphree CE, Mutchler CK. Comparison of sediment yield models on watersheds in Mississippi. Transactions of the ASAE. 1989; 32(2):529-34.
[Google Scholar]