(Publisher of Peer Reviewed Open Access Journals)

International Journal of Advanced Technology and Engineering Exploration (IJATEE)

ISSN (Print):2394-5443    ISSN (Online):2394-7454
Volume-9 Issue-97 December-2022
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Paper Title : Predicting initial duration of project using linear and nonlinear regression models
Author Name : Gafel Kareem Aswed, Mohammed Neamah Ahmed and Hussein Ali Mohammed
Abstract :

The fair prediction of completion time of the road project at the initial stage is crucial for the preparation of the tenders. Usually, the engineers using their past experience to assign inaccurate execution time for this type of projects which are not supported by any statistical models. This paper aims to find an acceptable mathematical model that helps specialists in road projects to estimate the implementation time in a more realistic way. Two mathematical models have been developed, which can effectively predict the execution time of road projects in Iraq based on quantities of each of base layer length, width, earthwork, sub base and final cost of the road project. The test results of the nonlinear regression model (NLRM) seem to be more accurate than multi linear regression model (MLRM). NLRM coefficient of determination (R2) is 88.6%, while 76% for MLRM. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) 20.29%, 11.65% for MLRM and NLRM respectively. The root means square errors (RMSE) are 76.59, 45.73, and the average accuracy percentages are (AA) 79.71%, 88.35% for MLRM and NLRM respectively. The developed NLRM model reinforces the ability of the decision maker in such projects to accurately estimate the required time pre tendering process.

Keywords : Road duration, Nonlinear model, Project cost, Regression.
Cite this article : Aswed GK, Ahmed MN, Mohammed HA. Predicting initial duration of project using linear and nonlinear regression models. International Journal of Advanced Technology and Engineering Exploration. 2022; 9(97):1730-1740. DOI:10.19101/IJATEE.2022.10100150.
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